THE INFLUENCE OF ICE COVER FOR ICE CLASS SHIPS AS A CONTROL OBJECT

Abstract

The article proves the necessity of use in the management of production activities of seaports analysis and forecasting of seasonal processes. The statistical data showing a significant reduction in the turnover of the ports of the Azov sea in the period of ice conditions. Given the definition of the seasonal factor, which is defined as the regular periodic occurrence of certain weather conditions associated with the change of seasons. It is emphasized that the seasonality is expressed in the form of oscillatory processes, which are described in the e economic-mathematical research indices and coefficients of seasonality. Developed a special approach to the formation of the information base that takes into account various forms of industrial activity of the port in terms of ice conditions, satisfying the demands continuous planning and management of port operations. Proposed and developed a verbal prediction algorithm the state of the ice cover to form caravans for statistical forecasting including all stages of processing of time series: seasonal analysis and planning processes regular traffic in the region with the announcement of ice.